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(6/8) De meest belangrijke video die je ooit zal zien (deel 6 van 8)

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that was ever in our ground in the United States and we are now coasting downhill on the last 25% of the oil. So we have to ask what's the department of energy is doing about this. And here in 1998 we read about a new comprehensive national energy strategy a set of policy goals that include halting the slide in U.S. oil production by the year 2005. Now ask yourself what do you think is the chance we can do anything more than put a little bump on the downhill side of the curve. But what does this mean. Let's look at the definition of modern agriculture: it's “the use of land to convert petroleum into food.” And we can see the end of the petroleum. Well, we have to ask about world petroleum. In 1972 dr. Hubbert produced this curve and he suggested that the peak of world production would occur around 1995. So we have to go to the data and see what has happened. Here again from our department of energy , but this now is world oil production. We can see a long period of steady growth of world oil production. There's quite a major trough like there, then there is a recovery, then there's simply an enormous trough and a partial recovery here. We're not yet over the peak. Each of those troughs that you saw there was due to a price hike from OPEC. And I think that those troughs in delaying the arrival of a peak are a reason for the fact that the peak will occur later than dr. Hubbert would have projected it to be. Well, I go back to my spreadsheet at my computer at home and now in addition to just fitting the curve, since the curve is not started down I can't get a very good fit for the area under the curve. I have to go to the geology literature and ask the literature and find out what is the consensus figure among geologists as for the total amount of oil we will ever find on this earth. The consensus figure in the literature is 2000 billion barrels. Now, that’s quite uncertain, plus or minus maybe 40 or 50%. If I plug that in and do the fit, the peak is this year (2004). If I assume there is 50% more than the consensus figure, the peak moves back to 2019. If I assume there’s twice as much as the consensus figure, the peak moves back to 2030. So look at those curves. In your life expectancy you are going to see the peak of world oil production. And you're got to ask yourselves what life's gonna be like on this Earth when we have production declining and we have a growing population and a growing per capita demand for oil. Just think about it. This isn't rocket science. This is something we can all think about In the March 1998 issue of Scientific American, there was a major article by two real petroleum geologists. One in England, one in France. They said that their estimate for this peak was that it would occur before 2010, so their estimate and mine shows we’re in the same ball park. And we're talking about the same numbers. Now, that article in Scientific American triggered a lot of discussion. And in particular in Fortune magazine, November 1999, commenting on the scientific analysis that was done by petroleum geologists we find an emeritus professor of economics at MIT saying that this analysis (by the geologists) is a piece of foolishness. The world will never run out of oil, not in 10,000 years.” So we have non-scientists telling us that petroleum reserves are greater than ever before in history. and we have geologists telling us that we are finding only one new barrel of oil for every four barrels we take out of the ground and consume. What is going on here? You've seen the figures. Here in 1999 you have lower 48-state January oil output hits 50-year low. Exactly what you expect as you're going down the right hand side of the Hubbert curve. Now one of dr. Hubbert favoured graphs is this one. This is on a time scale from 5,000 years ago to 5,000 years in the future and the age of fossil fuels is a little blip in the middle of the screen. Think about it. Well, we do have to ask about new discoveries. Here is a discussion from about eleven years ago about the largest discovery of oil in the Gulf of Mexico in the past twenty years, an estimated 700 million barrels of oil. That’s a lot of oil, but a lot compared to what? At that time, we were consuming 16.6 million barrels every day in the United States. Divide the 16.6 into 700 and you find that discovery would meet US needs for 42 days. And that's the biggest discovery they've made in the Gulf of Mexico in 20 years. On the front page of the Wall Street Journal in 1997, we read about the new Hibernia oil field off the south coast of Newfoundland. Please note this one line in the headline: “Now it will last fifty years.” So let’s follow up and read from that story in the Wall Street Journal and read about the Hibernia field: “The Hibernia field, one of the largest oil discoveries in North America in decades, should deliver its first oil by the end of the year. At least 20 more fields may follow, offering well over one billion barrels of high-quality crude, promising a steady flow of oil just a quick tanker-run away from the energy-thirsty East Coast”. They may find a billion barrels of oil in that undersea deposit. So a billion barrels we're now consuming something like 18 million barrels a day. divide the 18 million into the billion and you find that would meet US needs for 56 days. And what did that head line say? It said: 50 years. Well, some people say there's nothing to worry about. And here we have a very prominent figure who says that we should grow corn,distil it into ethanol, and run all the vehicles in the US on ethanol. And in support of this he says today ethanol production displaces over 43.5 million barrels of imported oil annually. That sounds pretty good doesn't it, until you think. Now he first question you’ve got to ask: 43.5 million barrels, what fraction is that of US vehicle consumption in a year? The answer is, it’s 1%. You would have to multiply corn production devoted to ethanol by a factor of 100 just to make the numbers look right. And I've seen the suggestion that that would take all of the agricultural land in the United States. Now the second problem is: It takes diesel fuel to plough the ground to plant the corn, to make the fertiliser to make the corn grow, to tend the corn, to harvest the corn. It takes more energy to distil it. You finally get a gallon of ethanol, you will be lucky if there’s as much energy in the gallon as it took to produce it. It's a loser. But this guy says not to worry, everything will be allright. Now there's a lesson here and the lesson is: We cannot let others do our thinking for us. Let's take another look at world oil production. Now the graph here is slightly different from the one I showed earlier. What I'm showing here is per capita production of oil, which means that at every point I take the world oil production divided by the world population that year. Now the scale here on the vertical axis is litres per person each day. There's is the number 2. There is two litres a person a day. Two litres is about half a gallon. Now notice that the peak occurred in the 1970s. And it's been going downhill and in the 1970s it was over 2 litres a person a day. It is now down to about 1.7 litres a person a day, so we can say that on any day any one of us uses more than 1.7 litres of petroleum directly or indirectly, we’re using more than our share. Now, what's the average consumption in the U. S.? The answer is up around 8 litres a person a day. Think about the inequity that's represented there. And there's something even more important in this graph. That peak in the 1970's I think that historians in the future will look back at this peak and say...

Video Details

Duration: 9 minutes and 28 seconds
Country: United States
Language: English
Views: 244
Posted by: ridelo on Jun 1, 2011

Deze lezing door prof. Albert Bartlett toont het onvermogen van de mens aan om in te zien hoe beperkt onze aardse energiebronnen zijn. En de klok tikt...

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