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November 9 Grains Commentary: Virginia McGathey

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- Virginia McGathey: Today, soybeans were higher. The market is consolidating a little bit, and it's consolidating to the upside, so it really got a little bit of a head of steam in spite of the fact that that USDA report was definitely bearish on the market. We had some wild swings yesterday, and maybe there was a little bit of recovery, and the market started to get a little bit of a lift. Now, they did cut the yield for the second month in a row, and you thought that maybe that was going to change some of the prices, but it hasn't. Interestingly enough, there's 160 million bushel cut in exports as well. So that basically is going to put a cap on any kind of significant move in these markets. Brazil planting is still way ahead of schedule. That, possibly, will weigh heavy on the markets going forward, but today we got a little bit of relief, some buying coming in, maybe some of the shorts that jumped in yesterday after the USDA report, they're taking that off the table in spite of the fact that the Dow is down almost 300 points today. But soybeans was the one that was really on the upscale today. Corn, not so much. It was lower. That USDA real yield revision really sat on the futures, and there's a lot of uncertainty on how to actually read it, with China and the rest of the world. The supply-demand numbers really were so explosive, when we first saw it, everyone thought that there had to have been a mistake. And so it was very difficult to trade. That's why you saw such huge volatility yesterday. But we kind of got our sea legs somewhat, and now it's sitting on the market. Now with corn, corn had been on a steady climb for actually a number of sessions, maybe 10 or 12 sessions in a row, so it had some room to give a little bit. So there was some profit-taking, and so we're down four or five cents today. But it's just at the end of the week kind of wrapping up. Next week could be a little bit of a short week, because we have a bank holiday on Monday, so we're going to watch that closely. Wheat also slipped today, maybe four or five cents. Still holding that $5 benchmark, but that mild USDA report is really baked into the prices. It just wasn't as bearish as corn and soybeans. And with that in mind, the market slipped a little bit. Interestingly enough, there are some good things on the horizon. Exports were up, and there's been a cut in the yield of wheat in Australia and even some issues in the Ukraine and in Europe. But Russia is continuing to export a lot of their wheat, and their prices are lower than us, and I think that that's what's kind of weighing on our market. But we're hoping that the $5 benchmark is going to keep some support in those markets. So we're going to watch. It still ends with a little bit of a bearish tone this week.

Video Details

Duration: 2 minutes and 54 seconds
Country: Andorra
Language: English
License: Dotsub - Standard License
Genre: None
Views: 5
Posted by: cmegroup on Nov 9, 2018

November 9 Grains Commentary: Virginia McGathey

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