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Network Society - LOGIN 2014

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What are we going to talk about is "what is the nature of this change?" And what we can do about it? But, before that, before we do that, I really want to introduce you to the very fundamental concept that Singularity University analyse and teaches, because it is one of the most important concept that today we have to understand, and you're biologically very eloquent to do so. And it is the concept of "what is exponential change?" "What is the nature of exponential function?" Singularity University has been funded at the NASA reasearch center by Google and NASA, and we assemble thought leaders, students, experts from all over the world, to tackle humanity grand challenges, in courses that are of 10 weeks in the summer, or 1 week long during the year. And we are also organizing a new series of exponential conferences, first which is going to be having New York this coming June, called "Exponential Finance". So, the exponential function is interesting, and the way we know it about it, most of us, is through Moore's Law. Moore's Law which tell us the price and the power of transistors is going to respectively decrease and increase, doubling every 18 months, approximately. And this is not the natural law, but it is so powerful and so unexpected, that even experts get fooled by it. When the Human Genome Project had to decode, on the human DNA, And 3 billion dollars were allocated to it, and in 7 years in the project, only 1% of the Human Genome has been decoded, and it was a 15 years project. A lot of experts said that it will take 100 years to get to the end of it, without releasing that for the past 7 years, the number of components in the Genome that was decoded would double. And so, in other 7 doublings, it will perfectly get to the goal of 100%, without even going to 128%, which would have be difficult in any case. And the reason why this is so hard, is because we think lineally: that is how our biologically evolve, that is how we would grown hunt, or try to survive when we are hunted. And at the beginning of the exponential function, things are not only slow, in the exponential function range, But things are also very noisy, not clear at all. And only those who are obsessed in their believe that what they are observing is meaningful realize what's going on, the other people, the 99% of those who don't care too much, observe the linear change, which is, as you can see in this simple graph, something that can be easily seen and only after while the exponential takes over, and then everybody can claim: "Oh, I always knew that would be the case". This kind of change has been going on for a long time. There are many ways that exponential change can be observed in the world, and there are now dozens of dozens of not only technological, but also actual phenomena that are interpreted through this. And if expressing that acceleration, that we can also see in our civilization that went through changes progressively, from the Era of the Pyramids, through the Middle Ages, to the Industrial Revolution, and what today we call, and we will more importantly call in the future, The Network Society. And the age where we are living is, even from a geological point of view, can be categorized as something fundamentally new on the planet. Anthropocene is the term that Paul Crutzen, a Nobel Prize, when the scientists who discovered the Ozone Hole has been able to coordinate the worldwide action that eliminated the chemicals causing the Ozone Hole, which is now closing. So, we actually dodged the bullet. We were opening up our atmosphere for extremely harmful radiations, and through a global effort, we have been able to stop that from happening and potentially wiping out the lifeforms on the planet. However, these changes that we are continually to make, are really enormous. In this chart you can see that thousand years ago the total biomass of terrestrial vertebrates in two groups: Wildlife, and humans. Plus cattle and pets. And 10.000 years ago, wildlife was 99%, and the other groups was 1%: Just in a eye blink, in terms of geological time, and it is exactly the opposite. This is what human civilization had as an impact on the planet. Now...most of us realize that this is not sustainable, that we have to do something about it. And the way I've actually characterize it is actually more radical. There is no difference between the dinosaurs and us, except that we have telescopes. And if we use those telescopes, whether literally, to keep an eye on incoming meteors, so we can do something about them hopefully, when they come (and they will come). Or, metaphorically using the telescopes of our mind to foresee incoming problems and prepare for their arrival, only then we will be different from the dinosaurs that have been dominating the planet, for tens of millions of years. as compared to the barely hundred of thousands of years that our specious been on the scene and technology is key, obviously our art our spiritual endeavors are very important for our psychological lives but the reason we can do what we do, the reason we aim to explore the debth of the ocean and out space and not only aim to do that but to acheive to do that is because of technology and in the past few decades of course we have been able to reinterpete the way we look at technology through the lence of todays inspiring ideas and this is through for ever age and our current age sees this three component of hard and soft design as intimately generating extreamly firtile ideas threw pregressive revolutions that exhaust a single explosion of innovation to be followed by an other one and this actually the pregressive combination of these innovations that designs the explanational curve that we know every single innovation exhaust itself in an escort of an illogistic curve after a while but throught the competition globaly of different teams to acheive our goals, one of them is enough to get a breakthrough and every body else will either adapt or licence or steal that innovation and bring us forward and this have been true for so long specificly in computing and IT that is almost mind-boggling there was nothing that could have predicted this originally we are now at a stage where all traditional view of the world in physics is breaking down and we have to embrace the next level the next layer of reality called quantum computing in order to advance and maintain the self fullfilling prophecy of more slot advancing power of computers and not only this is something that we need to do but it's something that we want to do because we realize how powerful what is coming going to be one of the consequences of the computers becoming more and more powerful has been our ability of making them easier and easier to use it was a priesthood caring about the electronic brain fifty years ago or sixty years ago that need to through decades of training and everything was shielded in air conditioned rooms and nobody could touch those incredibly complex laughably simple with today's eyes but extremely expensive and delicate machines and through progressive iterations we were able to get them easier and easier through command lining to faces, graphical using to faces that become ???? and ??? components touching to faces which are now one of dominant ways of using computers gestures recognition that is becoming more and more readly accessible not only in gaming but actually in productive related uses as well and dialogue into faces based on conversations which are going to be necessary when our computers start to disappear in the environnement and there is nothing that we can touch on them to use as a keyboard or when we start wearing them and we want to be able to tell them what to do or to listen to their advice until they will disappear completely And whether are brain compute-ring to faces they are called Our outside of our brain and our ????? or inside it is definitely the next step in order to fulfill the say of Altercy Clark : " Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic" because when two of us will wear something like this and we will communicate it will be telepathy come through so, the internet that we have known for the past twenty years is generally talking, generally speaking the network of networks so there can be many types of networks of course so there can be many types of internet and talking about the internet of everything is quiet reasonable because not only our mobile phones are spreading out on the planet with speed that is unprecedented but other devices are becoming computers on wheels or computer with wings and the way they see the world is radically new the moving component that you can see on the google self-driving car is a type of eye that biology has never invented in the past billions of years and evolution created eight or twelve different types of eyes reinventing the approach of how to see the world and this type of eye is something totally new that is capable of see 360° degrees at a very fine resolution modeling the world and its moving components at a precision and a reliability that is totally unprecedented this kind of fine grand ma-ping of the planet is been supported by technology as generations after generations of protocols are needed in order to achieve what we want to do and we design and we interpret what is going on in the evolution also of our applications the success of Wikipedia was based on the possibility of collaborative documents editing which is the first generation of Web metaphors Today's social networks allow us to act analyse and act upon social connections desires ideas and emotions that we express through our actions through the computers and the internet of things is going to permeate the world with senses that are computer connected in order to map what is going on anywhere even if we are not around to look at it and of course we have achieved a level of penetration of our computer devices that doesn't allow us to control them anymore we are in charge however remotely and if there are a billion phones we can maybe come through the menus and tell the phones how to configure themselves but if there are thousands of devices around us or millions of devices per person on the planet then evidently they have to be totally ????? otherwise we will go crazy just trying to tell them what to do and we do see the first signs of what is going to happen if a vacuum cleaner can tell when it is time to go to the wall socket in order to charge itself that is fantastic i wish that my phone can crawl and do the same rather than me having to obsessively watch the display and then keep plugging it to make sure that i can sent or receive messages post on Facebook or whatever else i do all day And when your car has the intelligence of looking around and alerting you that you should break it is definitely the case that our insurance policy and our legal system is not up to the task to let the car drive itself for the moment even if technologically we are ready but at the time when the car tells you to break in you don't already there are cars that will say okay i will do it and it will break in your place to avoid an accident so the dialogue in the world and the conversations that are going on around us are changing in the mix who is doing the conversations is changing from applications that require people to talk to each other to applications that require machines to talk to each other in the futur the second will vastly dominate the conversations on the planet and in order to do so we must make every object smart as Porsela tell us that power of a computation unit is going to increase relentlessly and its cost is going to decrees relentlessly as inventors designers of new types of harder and softer and interactions you should never ever more think of any object as if it were dump you should always think of any object in the futur knowing that it has to be able to perceive it has to be able to sense the environment and it has to be able to communicate both its internal state and its interactions to other machines until the messages are aggregated and proffer to us in an actionnable useful form sometime and somewhere so, how does this impact the society we're living in the old ??peradime?? when five hundred years ago the nation state was born here and there and it consulate itself through monarchys and they adapted a democratic form mostly representative democracies other reasons for it being born was multifaceted it was born for defense purposes, it was born because there were efficiency of scale to provide transportation, energy, food education, health, organize financial transactions on a national scale and everything was centralized and every thing was hierarchical but new paradigm that is emerging that we can see in the way our softer applications that captures interests and the economic value of vaster and vaster number of people without any regard to national boundaries are distributed pear to pear and totally different from before and this kind of change is unstoppable. It is totally understandable that leaders in old industries want to exercice their influence hopefully legally sometimes illegally in order to achieve the political aim of slowing or believe to be able to be stopping this change but they are diluting themselves and those societies that allow the political class or the policy makers to fall into the trap of believing that this change can be stopped those societies are bound to fail, and the members of those societies should revolt because, the future is coming and it is coming in a matter that it can not be reversed let me give you a few examples I mentioned energy, today's world is based on an energy distribution mechanism on oil and on the petrecol claiming industry that is totally centralised, but think about solar energy and many other renuable energy sources these are naturally distributed think about an electred car that can be charged from the solar energy that is produced where you live think about the opportunity of designing an electrical distribution system that is peer to peer that knows where the electricity is needed, where it can be stored and adds to that rapidly and reliably our CD's themselves will have to be rethought around these changes if it is possible, to use LED illumination, to grow food in a skyscraper without pasticides maybe dedicating the couple of the stories of the skycraper but feed the people who are in that building, if it is possible to connect like this device in an open source peer to peer network, the best recipes for growing affectively and efficeantly different species of plants then agriculture and food production is going to be revolutionised what happens to manifacturing and what happens to the chinese economy, if, instead of sending an order for a million devices or gadgets or trinkets or whatever we want to sell next christmas and waiting 3 months until they are delivered, and launching an advertising campaign and stuffing the shelves with 3 times as many products than even the best of our projections forecast because we are afraid, almost in panic that the shelves are going to be empty if the product actually takes off and that it sells normally maybe a third of our projection and 2/3 gets thrown into the dump what happens if rather than this we can at every street corner or city block produce locally what is needed in the quantities that are needed and iterating on the design very rapidly rather than the cycles 1 2 3 years than the way it happens today the revolution in manufacturing of 3D printing has just barely started, actually it started 20 years ago but there was a grip of pathans that have just expired so it is very interesting to think about a revolution that has just been delayed because of police decisions that allowed what should increase the rate of innovation to have a lock in for something that is not only very cool but economically extremely important and of course these technologies are inter-related we can and we already do 3D print meat, last August, radiasi in London, the first 3D printed hamburger was consumed it was made of normal animal cells that have been steakely assembled in little strips and then the strips themselves in the patty thas has been cooked and it was found, to be dry because it was only muscle cells not fat, so it is to be found too, that it costs 300000 dollars to make that little single hamburger but it is the opening bell of a new revolution where those of us who are carnivores are not going to need to dedicate entire continents to grow the food stock, in order to grow the animal, in order to slaughter the animal and in order to throw away 90% of body animal is about you know, bones and teeth and guts, things we don't eat with 3D printing meat, not only we are going to be able to spare 90% of the water, 70% of the energy and 80% of the land needed to grow our food, not only those who say oh no the chinese and indians who want to start eating something else than rice oh we can not afford that, I am so sorry only europeans and americans can keep eating meat those shouldn't even aspire to that because you know it is not echologically sustainable such a hypocritical stands which quite laughable even if you didn't laugh it is not needed because we can find solutions based on technology and the chinese will be very very happy to 3D print the meat they want to eat, and the indians will be even happier because there are some analysis and updates so vegetarian and vegan, philosophies that say, actually they will be able to eat this meat without breaking their stands because there is no nervous system in this thing there is no animal suffering there is no imprint of consciousness or will there at all and another twist of into twining consequences of accelerating exponential technologies car makers at variant degres all trying to see what is going on with self driving cars pushed by google sugracif stands and having seen what happens to the mobile phone industry if you don't pay attention to what google does all of them are scrambling and saying okay we will be ready maybe in 20 years maybe in 30 years but we are doing it and google a few months ago said that they will be ready in 3 and it's great, there are projections that say that 99% of the accidents will be eliminated tenths of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people over the world will not die and I asked around for the past few days if there is a local debate about what policy upgrades need to happen in the Turrainia and the politics and in Europe at large of course and some of the people I asked wouldn't know, other said there is no such debate but it is very important, ou should tell your politicians and your policy makers the experts that these call upon what they should do that they should not think in investing and protecting past industries they should think about how to design a new society that is future complient future compatible but one of the consequences of self-driving cars is going to be that since we are not going to kill so many young people we will lack body parts to be implanted in old people there will be an extreme shortage of replacement organs so here is technology to the risky once again 3D printing which provides the possibility of 3D printing organs to be implanted in people who need them and these organs will be designed and printed through their own tissues so there will be no problems of immune injections as an added bones and we spoke about health in some of our other talks this is another industry that is centrally designed as a business model to profit from your illness the sooner you get better the less profit they make which is not only crazy, not only evil but it is also not necessary anymore when we can through our distributed peer to peer connections , the apps, the social networks all the cool things that we all started to see through the quantify self-mouvement and other wearable devices that monitor our steps our health status we can keep an eye on our well-being and maintain our well-being rather than leverage our illness once it's too late and more and more these devices have become capable and fullfill science fiction dreams of integrated tribe courters that we have seen and inspired us in star trek or other movies or novels that represented a future that engineers when they were kids or university read and remembered in order to make them reality DNA sequencing at a personal level, it's a huge promise but here we are, in America, the food and drug administrations stopped 23 and me from selling personal DNA sequencing because they say people are stupid they can not know, they shouldn't know unless there is a priest-hood that can interpret the message for them we need a new literal revolusion. When the bible was translated from latin to the local languages, europe was swept by revolutions and we have to tell these people one, we are not stupid two, we can read and write and we want to and whether it is the bible, or it is our DNA which is an even more inquinate and sacred writing we have to be allowed to get access to it and it is not a question of IF there are very reliable projections, the same reliability as the increasing power of our micro-processors saying that the cost of sequencing an entire human genome which is now between a 1000 and 5000 dollars is going to get in a few years to cost 1 dollar and in a few years more, 1 cent so what is the kind of world where you can decoded for the cost of 1 cent that is what we have to think about and we can, because we have the tools of knowledge, an access to knowledge availabe to us through the massively online open courses the moves that have been born recently and have been taken to the world by storm Sebastian Thrun who lead by the way as a coincidence who goes successfull self-driving car team told one of the first EI classes at Stanford University and he resigned from his tenured professor shape after realising that in his entire life time as a teacher, he could have never faced a group as large and as enthousiastic as that semester so we have access to knowledge we have access to the tools that we create with that knowledge what about the sources that we need in order to assemble everything together and that is quite nicely coming along as well the evolution of finance is itself a technology we don't have to believe what we have been told that bankers and the corporates that 2008 collapse are doing something so complex and so impossible to understant that oh, how happy we should be that we are being saved because the government intervened and that everything is fine and we can go back to sleep that is the official story that we are getting but we have to be able and we are to take things in our own hands because that priest-hood also is not deserving of our respect and they are not getting it these industries are rapidly changing and the new applications are disrupting them when the centrally designed currencies whose mechanics are not accessible to people are imposed on populations that not necessarly want them under the guise of representative democracy where you delegate those decisions to the wise people that is something that is not necessarily right where there is a 600 billion dollar industry which is the international remittance industry that preys on the poor because the poorer the country where you send you money the higher the commission arriving to 10, 20, 30% commission to send money home that deserves to die so what is going to happen, of course, depends it depends exactly on how smart the people in the various society are who you elect, how you keep your politicians and policy makers accountable if you wait four years until the next election is that enough ? if it is not ? should there be a change in the very way that the democracy works ? what if HongKong has more to do with New York than either with their respective neighbour that is just a 100 kilometers away but it is completely different social and economical environment and what if the mayors of not only Hongkong and New York but every other city of 10 million people or more can communicate on a joined social platform where they coordinate how policy decisions and how technologies get adopted and this coordination is affective and efficient to increase the well-being of the citizens living in that city rather than in that nation what happens to the nation states ? my prediction is that the nation state is over and the sooner we realise that and the sooner we accept going forward, leveraging new communication mechanisms that cross the language barrier that allows us to go using for example online video which is the medium with the protest emotional bandwith that we know today which cisco actually projects absorb over 90% of our communication in the coming years if we can find and discover which is possible through the tools that dotsub makes available to everybody what is inside those videos ? What is the message ? regardless of the language in any language we want, whether it is an investigative journalism that discovers some changing inhance in the europe empralement that explodes after a year in the check republic for some reason and then in France imagine what it could do to a country like Lithuania how many speakers today had their message restricted to people who speak the local language rather than speaking to the world because they spoke in Lithuanian and that is now what is possible, even English which supposedly everybody speaks or learns a 2 hour long documentary has been seen in over 3 million times in 86 languages and only 13% of the views are in English and this technology is not stopping either even though we know how to relate to other human beings and that is one of the reasons why the video is so important and why I think it is a fundamental component of the solution that we have infront of us where we have to create bridges of understanding across the entire planet what matters is how we are and what we are in the point of view of human beings how do we react and imagine if we went to what one could call emotional computing what would that be ? trying to think about what would it be when the computers are able to understand our emotions like a scanner and when computers are able to write our emotions like a printer we will be their instrument but as long as we can make steps forward and we can solve our challenges we can avoid destroying our planet we can cross the bridge of the challenges we have ahead that is good because we have to keep searching for solutions too many people admire what is going on in technology and they feel that every solution will come by itself but it's not true, it is very hard and there is no guarantee maybe our next problem is going to need 20 billion people in order to generate the one gene that will solve it and if we are only 7 billion people it's too late we will not make it the different searche strategies that if we have for finding new ways of solving our problems are all fine whether you are a sushi maker, that chooses when 12 years of age that we will just keep doing sushi and that is a strategy for perfection and for happiness or whether you are the founder of the TED conferences who topples cilos of knowledge and everything for him across every possible space is about design is all good what we have today which we didn't have in the past is the previlege of failure we can afford and our societies should be designed in able to let us afford trying and trying failing and failing because we will learn from those and it's okay because there are so many of us and our societies are so wealthy when there is poverty so self imposed whether in the level of a country, whether in the level of a continent that it is shamefull, it is totally avoidable and opportunities that we offer to other people and to ourselves to solve these challenges are necessary to keep innovating and inventing because every piece of knowledge is nothing but a building block for new questions that pop up around the universe and the widening gap of ignorance between the two of them is mathematically guaranteed never to close so we just have to keep going and invent new things to keep coming with new answers adapting and adopting those technologies to solve the issues we have not everybody believes this, to me it is mind boggling that there are people who prefer believing in a fantasy world where their side is only good and the other side is only bad reality is not like that reality is more like science fiction when you have technologies that are neutral and they have concequences but it is not a zero some game whether it is food that we intake and leaves our bodies very quickly whether we are talking about our buildings that crumble so many things around us are inpermenant even entire civilizations and empires that cross the glob coming goal and we know that that is why passion, and being able to dream, and realizing our dreams is the strongest building bloc we have in the entire univers Thank you! *Applause* Do you like that ? yeah , we have some questions No ! i said did you like that ? It's okay ! It's okay ... alright ! alright, do you want to take a seat? Am i on ? yeah, perfect ! what did you think ? did you like it? Did they like it? Oh let's .. alright .. no pressure ! no more questions did they like it ? it's fine , i don't need to anymore i know some people in the audience are aware what singularity is but could you explain the concept ? what is singularity ? the whole .. at some point we will .. um .. in the forties and in the fifties starting with Fonoiman who was a computer science guy and a a physicist foundarian origin together with Enrico Fermi who was Italian, and others were really starting to think: hey ! this cybernetics is cool what is going to happen ? and they started projecting out what could be the extreme consequences of what they call cybernetics antonomasia what today we call: information technology and the fiend that was born out of this is called artificial intelligence An I.A .. when through the classical loops of expended expectations and disillutions however, it kept growing and growing today there are so many things we take for granted that are A.I you know, voice recognition in our phones smart navigation of multiple points on a map with our cars ans so on .. but each of these is what is called narrow A.I a new concept relatively speaking is what is called: Artificial general intelligence AGI which you can think of universal problem solver Tell it : hey ! that's my challenge the global warming can you help ? and the AGI goes out and not only collects information but asks itself : Am I programmed the right way to face this challenge to solve the problem and if the answer is no, it is capable of redesigning and reprogramming itself so self modifying artificial general intelligence is the boundary today where the acceleration of smart technologies is going to really transform the world to the point that some people believe it's going to be literally unrecognizable and that is the point of the technological singularity okay ! and there is a time frame right ? there's prediction? - Well ! you know every decade you can ask the specialists do you believe this will happen ? Yes ? when ? and then you do a scatter plot and through the decades you look at how the scatter plot narrows hopefully So, there is a growing understanding that yes, AGI is possible and that it is not too far in the future there are people who believe it is 10 years, there are people who believe it is 20 years but increasing amounts of founding are becoming available in order to not only make it happen but make it happen in a way that is compatible with human civilization Did freakers ball make a statement it's 2045 or ? that is it's own projection when the price of computer who's power is equivalent to the human brain is going to be a 1000 dollars Wow ! Okay . although 2 years later it will be 500 hundred so i wait for the next years and am cheap! who many people actually new about singularity university before his talk ? so not that many, as i recall you were there there before the university started at such .. i was part of the group that design singularity university especially as a non american i was interested in making sure that it could be not only hosting in exclusive courses the best of our applicants because we have 80 students every summer and these series applications are closed, but if you want to keep an eye on the website you can start applying next year if you are interested pretty soon i also wanted it to be inclusive especially through online distribution of content and materials and we're still hammering at it n how to not only make it available but also how to update efficiently the information based currently about 80% of all the material that we teach changes every year could you labrialit the more you mention there is applications ? so what does that mean ? who can apply into what ? because i think some of the people in the audience are quite interested. -sure so if you go to *SingularityU.org* you will see there are 3 types of events, the 10 weeks summer program which typically graduates students or PhD students come who are at a point of their professional development they want to have a broader understanding of inter-locking technologies inter-disciplinary understanding then we have the executive programs that are of one week and that they are around the year and these are more appropriate or we have people coming who are investors or they just sold a business and they want to know what to do next or C level executives of larger corporations and it gives those attendees a really good set of tools to decode the weak signals of rapidly approaching radical change that other people might miss and so as a consequence they can act on those signals can you mention any of the companies that came out of GSP ? so, during the summer course we encourage the students to form teams it's not compulsory of course but it is almost unavoidable in Silicon Valley that you want to do a start up it is also one of the best ways to find out if your idea works you do it, you fail you do something else or you iturrate till you succeed so we have several companies that graduated from Singularity university successfully getting founding and then going on doing what they want to do one of these is car sharing company called *Get around* another of them is a 3D printing company specialized in space based 3D printing which is important because we can not bring spare parts on our mission to mars we have to able and do them on board which is called Made in space another uses drouns for delivering medicine in those areas of the world where roads are unreliable or non existent most of the time in the year and these later years, an incredible number of ideas and as a consequence companies have been formed around biotech issues so for example, a company that designs materials and 3D complexes in order to create more efficient bioreactors for meat or tissue cultivation and it is part of a mass and industry of supply chain that supports the various parts of the value creation in 3D printing living tissue alright ! our time is about up, as a tradition one last thing you want to tell to the audience where is singularity taking us ? humans and computers will co exist and it is our mission to not only solve our problems on earth but to become a multi-planetary specie as soon as possible because our challenge and our opportunity is to transform the universe and each of us can help make that happen especially in talking to policy makers, in talking to politicians who know almost nothing about all of this and who have to be ready because they have to change society in order to be compatible with this future alright ! Thank you that was David Orban.

Video Details

Duration: 52 minutes and 34 seconds
Country: United States
Language: English
Genre: None
Producer: LOGIN 2014
Views: 54
Posted by: davidorban on Sep 15, 2014

David Orban's speech at LOGIN 2014

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