Annotated captions of Bill Gates on energy: Innovating to zero! in English
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tedtalks |
00:01 00:05 |
I'm going to talk today about energy and climate. |
tedtalks |
00:05 00:07 |
And that might seem a bit surprising because |
tedtalks |
00:07 00:12 |
my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds, |
tedtalks |
00:12 00:15 |
about the things that we need to invent and deliver |
tedtalks |
00:15 00:20 |
to help the poorest two billion live better lives. |
tedtalks |
00:20 00:25 |
But energy and climate are extremely important to these people -- |
tedtalks |
00:25 00:30 |
in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet. |
tedtalks |
00:30 00:35 |
The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow: |
tedtalks |
00:35 00:38 |
There will be too much rain, not enough rain, |
tedtalks |
00:38 00:40 |
things will change in ways |
tedtalks |
00:40 00:44 |
that their fragile environment simply can't support. |
tedtalks |
00:44 00:49 |
And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest. |
tedtalks |
00:49 00:53 |
So, the climate changes will be terrible for them. |
tedtalks |
00:53 00:56 |
Also, the price of energy is very important to them. |
tedtalks |
00:56 00:59 |
In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of, |
tedtalks |
00:59 01:03 |
to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy. |
tedtalks |
01:03 01:07 |
Now, the price of energy has come down over time. |
tedtalks |
01:07 01:13 |
Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy. |
tedtalks |
01:13 01:17 |
The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution, |
tedtalks |
01:17 01:23 |
and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity, |
tedtalks |
01:23 01:26 |
and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning, |
tedtalks |
01:26 01:30 |
we can make modern materials and do so many things. |
tedtalks |
01:30 01:37 |
And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world. |
tedtalks |
01:37 01:44 |
But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap -- |
tedtalks |
01:44 01:46 |
we need to meet a new constraint, |
tedtalks |
01:46 01:50 |
and that constraint has to do with CO2. |
tedtalks |
01:50 01:53 |
CO2 is warming the planet, |
tedtalks |
01:53 01:59 |
and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one. |
tedtalks |
01:59 02:03 |
If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted, |
tedtalks |
02:03 02:06 |
that leads to a temperature increase, |
tedtalks |
02:06 02:10 |
and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects: |
tedtalks |
02:10 02:13 |
the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects, |
tedtalks |
02:13 02:18 |
in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes, |
tedtalks |
02:18 02:21 |
and so you get ecosystem collapses. |
tedtalks |
02:21 02:24 |
Now, the exact amount of how you map |
tedtalks |
02:24 02:28 |
from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be |
tedtalks |
02:28 02:30 |
and where the positive feedbacks are, |
tedtalks |
02:30 02:33 |
there's some uncertainty there, but not very much. |
tedtalks |
02:33 02:36 |
And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be, |
tedtalks |
02:36 02:39 |
but they will be extremely bad. |
tedtalks |
02:39 02:41 |
I asked the top scientists on this several times: |
tedtalks |
02:41 02:44 |
Do we really have to get down to near zero? |
tedtalks |
02:44 02:47 |
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter? |
tedtalks |
02:47 02:51 |
And the answer is that until we get near to zero, |
tedtalks |
02:51 02:53 |
the temperature will continue to rise. |
tedtalks |
02:53 02:55 |
And so that's a big challenge. |
tedtalks |
02:55 03:00 |
It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge, |
tedtalks |
03:00 03:03 |
and we can just sort of squeeze under." |
tedtalks |
03:03 03:07 |
This is something that has to get to zero. |
tedtalks |
03:07 03:11 |
Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year, |
tedtalks |
03:11 03:13 |
over 26 billion tons. |
tedtalks |
03:13 03:17 |
For each American, it's about 20 tons; |
tedtalks |
03:17 03:20 |
for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton. |
tedtalks |
03:20 03:24 |
It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet. |
tedtalks |
03:24 03:26 |
And, somehow, we have to make changes |
tedtalks |
03:26 03:29 |
that will bring that down to zero. |
tedtalks |
03:29 03:31 |
It's been constantly going up. |
tedtalks |
03:31 03:36 |
It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all, |
tedtalks |
03:36 03:39 |
so we have to go from rapidly rising |
tedtalks |
03:39 03:42 |
to falling, and falling all the way to zero. |
tedtalks |
03:42 03:44 |
This equation has four factors, |
tedtalks |
03:44 03:46 |
a little bit of multiplication: |
tedtalks |
03:46 03:49 |
So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero, |
tedtalks |
03:49 03:53 |
and that's going to be based on the number of people, |
tedtalks |
03:53 03:56 |
the services each person's using on average, |
tedtalks |
03:56 03:59 |
the energy on average for each service, |
tedtalks |
03:59 04:03 |
and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy. |
tedtalks |
04:03 04:05 |
So, let's look at each one of these |
tedtalks |
04:05 04:09 |
and see how we can get this down to zero. |
tedtalks |
04:09 04:13 |
Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero. |
tedtalks |
04:13 04:16 |
Now that's back from high school algebra, |
tedtalks |
04:16 04:18 |
but let's take a look. |
tedtalks |
04:18 04:20 |
First, we've got population. |
tedtalks |
04:20 04:23 |
The world today has 6.8 billion people. |
tedtalks |
04:23 04:25 |
That's headed up to about nine billion. |
tedtalks |
04:25 04:29 |
Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines, |
tedtalks |
04:29 04:31 |
health care, reproductive health services, |
tedtalks |
04:31 04:35 |
we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent, |
tedtalks |
04:35 04:39 |
but there we see an increase of about 1.3. |
tedtalks |
04:39 04:42 |
The second factor is the services we use. |
tedtalks |
04:42 04:44 |
This encompasses everything: |
tedtalks |
04:44 04:48 |
the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating. |
tedtalks |
04:48 04:51 |
These are very good things: |
tedtalks |
04:51 04:54 |
getting rid of poverty means providing these services |
tedtalks |
04:54 04:56 |
to almost everyone on the planet. |
tedtalks |
04:56 05:00 |
And it's a great thing for this number to go up. |
tedtalks |
05:00 05:02 |
In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion, |
tedtalks |
05:02 05:04 |
we probably could cut back and use less, |
tedtalks |
05:04 05:08 |
but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up, |
tedtalks |
05:08 05:12 |
and so, over all, that will more than double |
tedtalks |
05:12 05:15 |
the services delivered per person. |
tedtalks |
05:15 05:17 |
Here we have a very basic service: |
tedtalks |
05:17 05:20 |
Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework? |
tedtalks |
05:20 05:22 |
And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out |
tedtalks |
05:22 05:26 |
and reading their school work under the street lamps. |
tedtalks |
05:27 05:31 |
Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service, |
tedtalks |
05:31 05:33 |
here finally we have some good news. |
tedtalks |
05:33 05:35 |
We have something that's not going up. |
tedtalks |
05:35 05:38 |
Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting, |
tedtalks |
05:38 05:43 |
through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings -- |
tedtalks |
05:43 05:46 |
there are a lot of services where you can bring |
tedtalks |
05:46 05:50 |
the energy for that service down quite substantially. |
tedtalks |
05:50 05:53 |
Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent. |
tedtalks |
05:53 05:56 |
There are other services like how we make fertilizer, |
tedtalks |
05:56 05:58 |
or how we do air transport, |
tedtalks |
05:58 06:02 |
where the rooms for improvement are far, far less. |
tedtalks |
06:02 06:04 |
And so, overall here, if we're optimistic, |
tedtalks |
06:04 06:11 |
we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six. |
tedtalks |
06:11 06:14 |
But for these first three factors now, |
tedtalks |
06:14 06:19 |
we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons, |
tedtalks |
06:19 06:21 |
and that just won't cut it. |
tedtalks |
06:21 06:23 |
So let's look at this fourth factor -- |
tedtalks |
06:23 06:25 |
this is going to be a key one -- |
tedtalks |
06:25 06:31 |
and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy. |
tedtalks |
06:31 06:35 |
And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero? |
tedtalks |
06:35 06:37 |
If you burn coal, no. |
tedtalks |
06:37 06:39 |
If you burn natural gas, no. |
tedtalks |
06:39 06:42 |
Almost every way we make electricity today, |
tedtalks |
06:42 06:48 |
except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2. |
tedtalks |
06:48 06:51 |
And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale, |
tedtalks |
06:51 06:54 |
is create a new system. |
tedtalks |
06:54 06:56 |
And so, we need energy miracles. |
tedtalks |
06:56 07:00 |
Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible. |
tedtalks |
07:00 07:05 |
The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle. |
tedtalks |
07:05 07:08 |
The Internet and its services are a miracle. |
tedtalks |
07:08 07:13 |
So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles. |
tedtalks |
07:13 07:15 |
Usually, we don't have a deadline, |
tedtalks |
07:15 07:17 |
where you have to get the miracle by a certain date. |
tedtalks |
07:17 07:21 |
Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't. |
tedtalks |
07:21 07:25 |
This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed |
tedtalks |
07:25 07:30 |
and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline. |
tedtalks |
07:30 07:33 |
Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this? |
tedtalks |
07:33 07:35 |
Is there some kind of natural illustration, |
tedtalks |
07:35 07:40 |
some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?" |
tedtalks |
07:40 07:44 |
I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos, |
tedtalks |
07:44 07:46 |
and somehow people enjoyed that. |
tedtalks |
07:46 07:48 |
(Laughter) |
tedtalks |
07:48 07:51 |
It really got them involved in the idea of, |
tedtalks |
07:51 07:54 |
you know, there are people who live with mosquitos. |
tedtalks |
07:54 07:59 |
So, with energy, all I could come up with is this. |
tedtalks |
07:59 08:02 |
I decided that releasing fireflies |
tedtalks |
08:02 08:06 |
would be my contribution to the environment here this year. |
tedtalks |
08:06 08:09 |
So here we have some natural fireflies. |
tedtalks |
08:09 08:12 |
I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar. |
tedtalks |
08:12 08:15 |
(Laughter) |
tedtalks |
08:15 08:20 |
Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one, |
tedtalks |
08:20 08:22 |
but they don't really add up to much. |
tedtalks |
08:22 08:26 |
We need solutions -- either one or several -- |
tedtalks |
08:26 08:30 |
that have unbelievable scale |
tedtalks |
08:30 08:32 |
and unbelievable reliability, |
tedtalks |
08:32 08:35 |
and, although there's many directions people are seeking, |
tedtalks |
08:35 08:39 |
I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers. |
tedtalks |
08:39 08:44 |
I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels. |
tedtalks |
08:44 08:46 |
Those may make some contribution, |
tedtalks |
08:46 08:48 |
and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better, |
tedtalks |
08:48 08:50 |
but my key point here |
tedtalks |
08:50 08:54 |
is that we're going to have to work on each of these five, |
tedtalks |
08:54 08:58 |
and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting, |
tedtalks |
08:58 09:02 |
because they all have significant challenges. |
tedtalks |
09:02 09:04 |
Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels, |
tedtalks |
09:04 09:08 |
either burning coal or burning natural gas. |
tedtalks |
09:08 09:11 |
What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not, |
tedtalks |
09:11 09:17 |
and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue, |
tedtalks |
09:17 09:20 |
pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere, |
tedtalks |
09:20 09:22 |
and hope it stays there. |
tedtalks |
09:22 09:26 |
Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level, |
tedtalks |
09:26 09:30 |
but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky, |
tedtalks |
09:30 09:36 |
and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard, |
tedtalks |
09:36 09:39 |
but the toughest one here is this long-term issue. |
tedtalks |
09:39 09:41 |
Who's going to be sure? |
tedtalks |
09:41 09:45 |
Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger |
tedtalks |
09:45 09:49 |
than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things? |
tedtalks |
09:49 09:52 |
This is a lot of volume. |
tedtalks |
09:52 09:54 |
So that's a tough one. |
tedtalks |
09:54 09:56 |
Next would be nuclear. |
tedtalks |
09:56 09:59 |
It also has three big problems: |
tedtalks |
09:59 10:03 |
Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high; |
tedtalks |
10:03 10:07 |
the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong, |
tedtalks |
10:07 10:10 |
that, even though you have these human operators, |
tedtalks |
10:10 10:13 |
that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons. |
tedtalks |
10:13 10:15 |
And then what do you do with the waste? |
tedtalks |
10:15 10:18 |
And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that. |
tedtalks |
10:18 10:20 |
People need to feel good about it. |
tedtalks |
10:20 10:25 |
So three very tough problems that might be solvable, |
tedtalks |
10:25 10:27 |
and so, should be worked on. |
tedtalks |
10:27 10:30 |
The last three of the five, I've grouped together. |
tedtalks |
10:30 10:34 |
These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources. |
tedtalks |
10:34 10:38 |
And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel -- |
tedtalks |
10:38 10:40 |
they have some disadvantages. |
tedtalks |
10:40 10:46 |
One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies |
tedtalks |
10:46 10:48 |
is dramatically less than a power plant. |
tedtalks |
10:48 10:52 |
This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles, |
tedtalks |
10:52 10:57 |
thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant. |
tedtalks |
10:57 11:00 |
Also, these are intermittent sources. |
tedtalks |
11:00 11:03 |
The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day, |
tedtalks |
11:03 11:06 |
and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time. |
tedtalks |
11:06 11:08 |
And so, if you depend on these sources, |
tedtalks |
11:08 11:11 |
you have to have some way of getting the energy |
tedtalks |
11:11 11:14 |
during those time periods that it's not available. |
tedtalks |
11:14 11:17 |
So, we've got big cost challenges here, |
tedtalks |
11:17 11:19 |
we have transmission challenges: |
tedtalks |
11:19 11:22 |
for example, say this energy source is outside your country; |
tedtalks |
11:22 11:24 |
you not only need the technology, |
tedtalks |
11:24 11:29 |
but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere. |
tedtalks |
11:29 11:31 |
And, finally, this storage problem. |
tedtalks |
11:31 11:34 |
And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at |
tedtalks |
11:34 11:37 |
all the types of batteries that get made -- |
tedtalks |
11:37 11:41 |
for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything -- |
tedtalks |
11:41 11:46 |
and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses, |
tedtalks |
11:46 11:50 |
and what I found is that all the batteries we make now |
tedtalks |
11:50 11:54 |
could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy. |
tedtalks |
11:54 11:57 |
And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here, |
tedtalks |
11:57 12:01 |
something that's going to be a factor of 100 better |
tedtalks |
12:01 12:03 |
than the approaches we have now. |
tedtalks |
12:03 12:07 |
It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing. |
tedtalks |
12:07 12:11 |
Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source |
tedtalks |
12:11 12:15 |
to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using. |
tedtalks |
12:15 12:17 |
If you're counting on it for 100 percent, |
tedtalks |
12:17 12:22 |
you need an incredible miracle battery. |
tedtalks |
12:23 12:26 |
Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach? |
tedtalks |
12:26 12:30 |
Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there? |
tedtalks |
12:30 12:35 |
Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds. |
tedtalks |
12:35 12:38 |
In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people. |
tedtalks |
12:38 12:42 |
And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good. |
tedtalks |
12:42 12:45 |
And, I think, here in the TED group, |
tedtalks |
12:45 12:49 |
we have many people who are already pursuing this. |
tedtalks |
12:49 12:53 |
Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar |
tedtalks |
12:53 12:55 |
that has some great solar thermal technologies. |
tedtalks |
12:55 12:59 |
Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies |
tedtalks |
12:59 13:03 |
that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities, |
tedtalks |
13:03 13:05 |
and I'm trying to help back that. |
tedtalks |
13:05 13:09 |
Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company |
tedtalks |
13:09 13:13 |
that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach. |
tedtalks |
13:13 13:17 |
There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid. |
tedtalks |
13:17 13:21 |
And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago, |
tedtalks |
13:21 13:26 |
so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising. |
tedtalks |
13:26 13:32 |
The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium -- |
tedtalks |
13:32 13:35 |
the one percent, which is the U235 -- |
tedtalks |
13:35 13:40 |
we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238." |
tedtalks |
13:40 13:42 |
It is kind of a crazy idea. |
tedtalks |
13:42 13:45 |
In fact, people had talked about it for a long time, |
tedtalks |
13:45 13:49 |
but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not, |
tedtalks |
13:49 13:52 |
and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers |
tedtalks |
13:52 13:54 |
that now you can simulate and see that, yes, |
tedtalks |
13:54 14:00 |
with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work. |
tedtalks |
14:00 14:03 |
And, because you're burning that 99 percent, |
tedtalks |
14:03 14:07 |
you have greatly improved cost profile. |
tedtalks |
14:07 14:11 |
You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel |
tedtalks |
14:11 14:14 |
all the leftover waste from today's reactors. |
tedtalks |
14:14 14:19 |
So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing. |
tedtalks |
14:19 14:23 |
It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle. |
tedtalks |
14:23 14:27 |
You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor. |
tedtalks |
14:27 14:31 |
In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem. |
tedtalks |
14:31 14:34 |
I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky. |
tedtalks |
14:34 14:36 |
This is the leftover, the 99 percent, |
tedtalks |
14:36 14:38 |
where they've taken out the part they burn now, |
tedtalks |
14:38 14:40 |
so it's called depleted uranium. |
tedtalks |
14:40 14:43 |
That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years. |
tedtalks |
14:43 14:46 |
And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process, |
tedtalks |
14:46 14:51 |
you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet. |
tedtalks |
14:51 14:55 |
So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead, |
tedtalks |
14:55 15:00 |
but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas |
tedtalks |
15:00 15:03 |
that we need to move forward. |
tedtalks |
15:03 15:06 |
So let's think: How should we measure ourselves? |
tedtalks |
15:06 15:09 |
What should our report card look like? |
tedtalks |
15:09 15:12 |
Well, let's go out to where we really need to get, |
tedtalks |
15:12 15:14 |
and then look at the intermediate. |
tedtalks |
15:14 15:19 |
For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction. |
tedtalks |
15:19 15:23 |
That really is very important, that we get there. |
tedtalks |
15:23 15:27 |
And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries, |
tedtalks |
15:27 15:29 |
still some agriculture, |
tedtalks |
15:29 15:33 |
hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement. |
tedtalks |
15:33 15:36 |
So, to get to that 80 percent, |
tedtalks |
15:36 15:40 |
the developed countries, including countries like China, |
tedtalks |
15:40 15:45 |
will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether. |
tedtalks |
15:45 15:51 |
So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology, |
tedtalks |
15:51 15:53 |
have we deployed it in all the developed countries |
tedtalks |
15:53 15:56 |
and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere? |
tedtalks |
15:56 15:58 |
That's super important. |
tedtalks |
15:58 16:02 |
That's a key element of making that report card. |
tedtalks |
16:02 16:07 |
So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like? |
tedtalks |
16:07 16:09 |
Well, again, it should have the two elements. |
tedtalks |
16:09 16:13 |
We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions: |
tedtalks |
16:13 16:16 |
The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2, |
tedtalks |
16:16 16:18 |
and, therefore, the less the temperature. |
tedtalks |
16:18 16:21 |
But in some ways, the grade we get there, |
tedtalks |
16:21 16:25 |
doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions, |
tedtalks |
16:25 16:29 |
is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other, |
tedtalks |
16:29 16:33 |
which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs. |
tedtalks |
16:33 16:36 |
These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed, |
tedtalks |
16:36 16:39 |
and we can measure that in terms of companies, |
tedtalks |
16:39 16:42 |
pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed. |
tedtalks |
16:42 16:45 |
There's a lot of great books that have been written about this. |
tedtalks |
16:45 16:48 |
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice" |
tedtalks |
16:48 16:51 |
and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air." |
tedtalks |
16:51 16:54 |
They really go through it and create a framework |
tedtalks |
16:54 16:56 |
that this can be discussed broadly, |
tedtalks |
16:56 16:59 |
because we need broad backing for this. |
tedtalks |
16:59 17:01 |
There's a lot that has to come together. |
tedtalks |
17:01 17:03 |
So this is a wish. |
tedtalks |
17:03 17:07 |
It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology. |
tedtalks |
17:07 17:10 |
If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years -- |
tedtalks |
17:10 17:12 |
I could pick who's president, |
tedtalks |
17:12 17:15 |
I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love, |
tedtalks |
17:15 17:17 |
or I could pick that this thing |
tedtalks |
17:17 17:21 |
that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented -- |
tedtalks |
17:21 17:23 |
this is the wish I would pick. |
tedtalks |
17:23 17:25 |
This is the one with the greatest impact. |
tedtalks |
17:25 17:27 |
If we don't get this wish, |
tedtalks |
17:27 17:31 |
the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible, |
tedtalks |
17:31 17:34 |
between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich, |
tedtalks |
17:34 17:39 |
and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse. |
tedtalks |
17:39 17:41 |
So, what do we have to do? |
tedtalks |
17:41 17:46 |
What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive? |
tedtalks |
17:46 17:49 |
We need to go for more research funding. |
tedtalks |
17:49 17:51 |
When countries get together in places like Copenhagen, |
tedtalks |
17:51 17:54 |
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2. |
tedtalks |
17:54 17:56 |
They should discuss this innovation agenda, |
tedtalks |
17:56 18:01 |
and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending |
tedtalks |
18:01 18:03 |
on these innovative approaches. |
tedtalks |
18:03 18:07 |
We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade -- |
tedtalks |
18:07 18:10 |
something that gets that price signal out there. |
tedtalks |
18:10 18:12 |
We need to get the message out. |
tedtalks |
18:12 18:15 |
We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue, |
tedtalks |
18:15 18:18 |
including the steps that the government takes. |
tedtalks |
18:18 18:22 |
This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve. |
tedtalks |
18:22 18:24 |
Thank you. |
tedtalks |
18:24 18:35 |
(Applause) |
tedtalks |
18:35 18:37 |
Thank you. |
tedtalks |
18:37 18:39 |
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you. |
tedtalks |
18:39 18:44 |
(Applause) |
tedtalks |
18:44 18:50 |
Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right -- |
tedtalks |
18:50 18:55 |
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is? |
tedtalks |
18:55 18:59 |
Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer, |
tedtalks |
18:59 19:01 |
hire all the great scientists, which we've done, |
tedtalks |
19:01 19:04 |
that's only tens of millions, |
tedtalks |
19:04 19:07 |
and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor |
tedtalks |
19:07 19:11 |
to make sure that our materials work properly, |
tedtalks |
19:11 19:13 |
then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions. |
tedtalks |
19:13 19:16 |
The tough thing is building the pilot reactor; |
tedtalks |
19:16 19:21 |
finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location |
tedtalks |
19:21 19:23 |
that will actually build the first one of these. |
tedtalks |
19:23 19:27 |
Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised, |
tedtalks |
19:27 19:31 |
then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density, |
tedtalks |
19:31 19:33 |
are so different than nuclear as we know it. |
tedtalks |
19:33 19:37 |
CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground |
tedtalks |
19:37 19:41 |
almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel, |
tedtalks |
19:41 19:43 |
of this sort of spent uranium, |
tedtalks |
19:43 19:46 |
and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down? |
tedtalks |
19:46 19:49 |
BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor, |
tedtalks |
19:49 19:52 |
so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong: |
tedtalks |
19:52 19:55 |
that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out, |
tedtalks |
19:55 19:57 |
that's not good. |
tedtalks |
19:57 20:02 |
So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in -- |
tedtalks |
20:02 20:04 |
just think of it as a log -- |
tedtalks |
20:04 20:07 |
put it down and not have those same complexities. |
tedtalks |
20:07 20:12 |
And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done. |
tedtalks |
20:12 20:16 |
CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution. |
tedtalks |
20:16 20:18 |
BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste, |
tedtalks |
20:18 20:23 |
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach -- |
tedtalks |
20:23 20:25 |
then you can actually take that, |
tedtalks |
20:25 20:28 |
and put it into another one and burn that. |
tedtalks |
20:28 20:32 |
And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today, |
tedtalks |
20:32 20:36 |
that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors -- |
tedtalks |
20:36 20:38 |
that's our fuel to begin with. |
tedtalks |
20:38 20:41 |
So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors |
tedtalks |
20:41 20:43 |
is actually what gets fed into ours, |
tedtalks |
20:43 20:46 |
and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically |
tedtalks |
20:46 20:48 |
as you're going through this process. |
tedtalks |
20:48 20:50 |
CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world |
tedtalks |
20:50 20:52 |
about the possibilities here. |
tedtalks |
20:52 20:55 |
Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this? |
tedtalks |
20:55 20:58 |
BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place, |
tedtalks |
20:58 21:06 |
and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear," |
tedtalks |
21:06 21:08 |
so we've got a lot of interest, |
tedtalks |
21:08 21:12 |
that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China -- |
tedtalks |
21:12 21:14 |
I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here, |
tedtalks |
21:14 21:18 |
talking about how this fits into the energy agenda. |
tedtalks |
21:18 21:21 |
So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work. |
tedtalks |
21:21 21:25 |
This is a variant on something that has been done. |
tedtalks |
21:25 21:29 |
It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor, |
tedtalks |
21:29 21:31 |
and a lot of countries have built them, |
tedtalks |
21:31 21:36 |
so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built. |
tedtalks |
21:36 21:41 |
CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood |
tedtalks |
21:41 21:44 |
of actually taking something like this live? |
tedtalks |
21:44 21:49 |
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things |
tedtalks |
21:49 21:51 |
that's very cheap, |
tedtalks |
21:51 21:55 |
we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy. |
tedtalks |
21:55 22:00 |
That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models |
tedtalks |
22:00 22:02 |
have shown us that we have to meet. |
tedtalks |
22:02 22:07 |
And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot -- |
tedtalks |
22:07 22:09 |
could easily meet that. |
tedtalks |
22:09 22:12 |
And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies -- |
tedtalks |
22:12 22:14 |
we need it to be hundreds -- |
tedtalks |
22:14 22:16 |
who, likewise, if their science goes well, |
tedtalks |
22:16 22:19 |
if the funding for their pilot plants goes well, |
tedtalks |
22:19 22:21 |
that they can compete for this. |
tedtalks |
22:21 22:23 |
And it's best if multiple succeed, |
tedtalks |
22:23 22:26 |
because then you could use a mix of these things. |
tedtalks |
22:26 22:28 |
We certainly need one to succeed. |
tedtalks |
22:28 22:31 |
CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes, |
tedtalks |
22:31 22:34 |
is this the biggest that you're aware of out there? |
tedtalks |
22:34 22:38 |
BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing. |
tedtalks |
22:38 22:40 |
It would have been, even without the environmental constraint, |
tedtalks |
22:40 22:45 |
but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater. |
tedtalks |
22:45 22:48 |
In the nuclear space, there are other innovators. |
tedtalks |
22:48 22:51 |
You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one, |
tedtalks |
22:51 22:54 |
but the modular people, that's a different approach. |
tedtalks |
22:54 22:58 |
There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard, |
tedtalks |
22:58 23:00 |
but maybe they say that about us. |
tedtalks |
23:00 23:03 |
And so, there are different ones, |
tedtalks |
23:03 23:06 |
but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium |
tedtalks |
23:06 23:10 |
has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal, |
tedtalks |
23:10 23:13 |
and so -- if you can deal with the negatives, |
tedtalks |
23:13 23:16 |
which are essentially the radiation -- |
tedtalks |
23:16 23:19 |
the footprint and cost, the potential, |
tedtalks |
23:19 23:21 |
in terms of effect on land and various things, |
tedtalks |
23:21 23:25 |
is almost in a class of its own. |
tedtalks |
23:25 23:29 |
CA: If this doesn't work, then what? |
tedtalks |
23:29 23:33 |
Do we have to start taking emergency measures |
tedtalks |
23:33 23:36 |
to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable? |
tedtalks |
23:36 23:38 |
BG: If you get into that situation, |
tedtalks |
23:38 23:43 |
it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack: |
tedtalks |
23:43 23:47 |
Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something. |
tedtalks |
23:47 23:51 |
There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, |
tedtalks |
23:51 23:54 |
which are various techniques that would delay the heating |
tedtalks |
23:54 23:57 |
to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together. |
tedtalks |
23:57 23:59 |
Now, that's just an insurance policy. |
tedtalks |
23:59 24:01 |
You hope you don't need to do that. |
tedtalks |
24:01 24:03 |
Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy |
tedtalks |
24:03 24:05 |
because it might make you lazy, |
tedtalks |
24:05 24:09 |
that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you. |
tedtalks |
24:09 24:12 |
I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem, |
tedtalks |
24:12 24:16 |
but there's now the geoengineering discussion |
tedtalks |
24:16 24:20 |
about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster, |
tedtalks |
24:20 24:23 |
or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect? |
tedtalks |
24:25 24:30 |
CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them, |
tedtalks |
24:30 24:34 |
how might you persuade them that they're wrong? |
tedtalks |
24:35 24:39 |
BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps. |
tedtalks |
24:39 24:43 |
The ones who make scientific arguments are very few. |
tedtalks |
24:43 24:46 |
Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects |
tedtalks |
24:46 24:48 |
that have to do with clouds that offset things? |
tedtalks |
24:48 24:51 |
There are very, very few things that they can even say |
tedtalks |
24:51 24:54 |
there's a chance in a million of those things. |
tedtalks |
24:54 24:57 |
The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS. |
tedtalks |
24:57 25:01 |
You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later. |
tedtalks |
25:01 25:05 |
And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems, |
tedtalks |
25:05 25:08 |
the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later, |
tedtalks |
25:08 25:11 |
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing -- |
tedtalks |
25:11 25:17 |
in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case, |
tedtalks |
25:17 25:19 |
and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC |
tedtalks |
25:19 25:23 |
and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal." |
tedtalks |
25:23 25:27 |
The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this. |
tedtalks |
25:27 25:30 |
But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic, |
tedtalks |
25:30 25:32 |
and meet the CO2 constraints, |
tedtalks |
25:32 25:34 |
then the skeptics say, "OK, |
tedtalks |
25:34 25:36 |
I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2, |
tedtalks |
25:36 25:38 |
I kind of wish it did put out CO2, |
tedtalks |
25:38 25:42 |
but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before." |
tedtalks |
25:42 25:46 |
(Applause) |
tedtalks |
25:46 25:50 |
CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument, |
tedtalks |
25:50 25:54 |
that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem, |
tedtalks |
25:54 25:56 |
it's going to take away all your other goals |
tedtalks |
25:56 25:59 |
of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth, |
tedtalks |
25:59 26:03 |
it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that |
tedtalks |
26:03 26:05 |
when there are better things we can do. |
tedtalks |
26:05 26:08 |
BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece -- |
tedtalks |
26:08 26:12 |
say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now -- |
tedtalks |
26:12 26:14 |
it's not that dramatic. |
tedtalks |
26:14 26:16 |
It shouldn't take away from other things. |
tedtalks |
26:16 26:19 |
The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree, |
tedtalks |
26:19 26:22 |
is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that -- |
tedtalks |
26:22 26:25 |
that, to me, mostly is a waste. |
tedtalks |
26:25 26:28 |
Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve |
tedtalks |
26:28 26:30 |
and it's going to get very cheap, |
tedtalks |
26:30 26:34 |
I believe we should try more things that have a potential |
tedtalks |
26:34 26:36 |
to be far less expensive. |
tedtalks |
26:36 26:41 |
If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive," |
tedtalks |
26:41 26:43 |
then the rich can afford that. |
tedtalks |
26:43 26:46 |
I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy |
tedtalks |
26:46 26:48 |
and not change our lifestyle. |
tedtalks |
26:48 26:50 |
The disaster is for that two billion. |
tedtalks |
26:50 26:52 |
And even Lomborg has changed. |
tedtalks |
26:52 26:57 |
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?" |
tedtalks |
26:57 26:59 |
He's still, because of his earlier stuff, |
tedtalks |
26:59 27:01 |
still associated with the skeptic camp, |
tedtalks |
27:01 27:04 |
but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp, |
tedtalks |
27:04 27:07 |
and so, he's making the R&D point. |
tedtalks |
27:07 27:12 |
And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate. |
tedtalks |
27:12 27:15 |
The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded. |
tedtalks |
27:15 27:18 |
CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here |
tedtalks |
27:18 27:21 |
to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much. |
tedtalks |
27:21 27:23 |
BG: Thank you. |
tedtalks |
27:23 27:26 |
(Applause) |