Food, Water And Energy In The Network Society - Alex Lightman (720p_30fps_H264-192kbit_AAC)
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Hello, I'm Alex Lightman, nice to meet you
I'm going to talk about food, water
and energy in the network society
I wanted to start by saying
there's a magazine here
it's on the G20
it's for the head of the 20 largest economies
Italy is one of them
and this is a magazine on the quest on the growth and stability
the very fist add is about how to exploit the tore sand of Canada
the tore sands of we burn them will basically double
the global warming greenhouse gases from all these tores sands
for every barrel of fuel you get from it
you have to use about 50 barrels of water
in the other advertisements, publication, .. here we go
petrol brass
so basically the idea of growth and stability today by the none network society
is defined as more fossil fuels
so if we look at single coal fired power plant
that can supply about 70.000 homes
so basically, maybe you need about
10 of them to power a Terrano
so imagine at that window, that beautiful landscape
10 of these plants
now imagine that they're putting out each one
each year 2 million tones of ِِِCO2
70.000 tones of ash each would be bigger than those buildings
95 pounds of mercury
which is very poisonous
and a 125 pounds of arsenic which is also poisenous
in the US up intil just 3 years ago
this provided more than half of all of our electricity
even though we've been using solar for 6.000 years
there's a whole book called "Let it shine" about how we've been using solar
for 6.000 years
we've had solar pannels for photovoltaics since 1883
and in 1905 Einstein came up with the photo electric effect paper
that he won his only nobel prize for
this is also .. David and I didn't coordinate our slides
i find it amusing that he had a bounch of dirty face children
in the coal mine
this is their reality of it
it's very hard and there is still places where their mining coal not so differeent from them
each age has a defining technology
we created technology and that changes everything
so the locomotive was one of the most powerful entities in the industrial age
anyone know how many times England economy grew from 1650 to 1750 ?
100 years ..any one want to guess ?
double .. triple.. anyone .. any guesses ??
10 times . who said that ?
yes ! ok thank you for having the courage to say that
the answer is .. just add a zero
100 times !!
100 times in 100 years
a lot of it was because of that
that's a big difference
and this pace age going ,we now have about a 100 billion dolar a year
commercial space market
mainly for satelites but not just for satelites
the space station costs about .. just from the US about 4 billion dollars a year
and we put things on Mars
and then we have the information age, computers, mainframe, mini-computer
PC, now we have mobile phones, and then we have this disappearing, disappearing interface
as we have conversational user interfaces
this is the Pony Express
the Pony Express was having people run on horses yaahh !!
and going from one side of the country to the other
it was only in place for 3 years
before it was replaced by the telegraph which was payed for by the US government
and then the telephone
and the patents for this were 30 minutes a part in the patent office
and then we look at this, this is farm
so these are farm jobs as a percentage of it's total employment
zero percent to 45 percent
so about 1 out of every 2.5 jobs in the US
from 1900 was in agriculture
and these jobs in here
and then this is a scale of tractores used in farmes
so very few tractores used and then we use more and more tractors
we have fewer and fewer jobs
so this is a room full of people who know the future
what's the next thing? whats the next graph?
that we can look ahead in the future
that's going to look just like that
we're right here with jobs
anyone want to make a guess?
who said that ? Yes !
our ambassador of Spain
Yes exactly, Robots ! human ride Robots especially are going to
make that exact thing happen
only the difference is
we have this graph now
and we should really look at it really carefully
because it's telling us some of the things, we can learn
from the past, the past doesn't repeat but it does rhyme
it does have a certain sound
again, this is the model T factory
in Detroit .. that basically making cars
that could be afforded because Henry Ford raised the wage
these are also where lots of robots were going
now, who here owns their property ?
who here owns their home ?
OK, several people
so, was it tough ?
to afford to buy a home now ?
is it ? yeah ? so there's an affordability index
in Hong Kong it's 17 which means that you take the salary
and it takes you 17 years in total salary to buy the average building in Hong Kong
average salary .. average dwelling
in London it's about 16
in Detroit, anyone knows what it is ?
it's 2 !!, it's the lowest in the world
average cost for a dweiling it's a 120.000
you can buy houses for 5.000
and the average income is 60.000
so one part of Detroit .. Detroit has collapsed
it's a failed state
it's like if you have athens as a state
you know .. a city state that has failed
but, out of the ashes you have all these people that are coming in
whom with 60.000 a year jobs who are able to buy 120.000 dollar homes
it's very funny
so the sun is setting on fossil fuels
and as government as a leader because
fossil fuels promote centralization
and governments thrives on cenralization
basically just like flies on garbage
if you dont have centralization you dont have to have .. 3.. 4 5 6 7 8 layers of government
so also fossil fuels have other costs
in the US we're actually spending more than 10.000 dollars per year
one third of US health care cost are due to fossil fuels
that's 886.5 billion dollars
that's not so terribly different from the size of the italian economy
so imagine everything in Italy
everything is being spent on health care
just from fossil fuels in the US
does that make sense? does it seem like something that's sustainable?
and David Orban said : Unsustainability is unsustainable
so also extreme climate events super typhoon Hayan
it went over 80 islands in the Philippines
and just stayed there going 300 miles an hour
what's 300 miles an hour in Kms ?
what ? .. ah 500, imagine 500 Kms an hour
over this building for 4.5 hours
what do you think would happen ? do you think you could go outside for a smoke ?
do you really want a word where things like this can come down ?
out of the atmosphere and just drop on you ?
it killed 10.000 people , 6.000 were homeless
and one projection, if you plot damage from whether, you just follow the graph out
by 2060 if the graph continues , the weather damages will be equal to the word economy at that time
this is bad, this is really serious and that's the reason we have to be concerned about this
in the US, i dont know if you care about the US, i care
so I'm going to talk about this
150 million people, you have the water, who can tell me how much of the earth
is water ? who can tell me ?
yes we don't live on a flat surface
it would be 70 percent if we were living on a flat land
but we're living at a sphere so it's 0.6 percent
so if this is a globe of the world
my moisture by breath is the depth of the ocean, that's real
so we have .. the world is 0.6 percent of water
97 percent is salt water . 2 percent is ice , 1 percent is fresh water
but the ice, 25 years ago was 2.8 trillion tonnes of ice
we have lost more than 1 and a half trillion tonnes of ice
in the last 25 years
because it's melting
so that's all turning into salt water
if we keep on heating things up
the ice will all melt and this is what will be futted in the US
over 150 million people, more than half the population's affected
but let's say we dont care about Amercica
how about Asia ? , well
more than 500 million people
are in places where , when the water will rise and come into the city
it won't necessarily just rise and then you'll be drowned
it 'l have a store so , we couldn't almost imagine until the movie "The day after tomorrow"
that new york systems subways would be floated with water during the storm
they were in hurricaine sandays
the subways were floated and that will happend more and more
the Leading cause of water air pollution is fossil fuel harvesting
so here's another way of looking at it , if you take all the water in the world
and you put it in a ball , that's how much water we have
and if you take all the atmosphere we have , that's where it fits .
this is really seen like here and here that we want to burn
hundreds of billions of tonnes of pollution
does that make sence?
So , there's a guy named Robert .O. Anderson who said something very interesting
and i think this is a good message for the network society
those who can not manage their assets to reflect their true value are inviting someone else to do it for them
i believe that the network society and all the concerned people are invited to manage these assets
this asset, and this asset, better .
so, natural gaz uses four and a half trillion gallons of water in the US alone
water for coal were using one thousand one hundred gallons per MWH
a nuclear uses eight hundred
three hundred gallons for MWH for natural gaz
zero galons for solar
this is the number one reason to use solar
because you don't have to use water
to get the energy
now if we see this , we see a formulaization, we see things starting off in the process of digitisation, right?
now watch this graph, oups oh
oh it's on a PDF, of course, David !
so when this would do what you would see , if you were watching the gif working is you would see every single on this desktop
turned into a company or somewhere between a 100 million and three hundred billion dollars
everything here is been ephemeralised , so the ephermalisation is going to take place
in the uh, in energy
and the ephemeralisation of energy meaning you turn something from matter into, uh, non matter
into energy, so the ephemeralisation energy includes one hundrand twenty million of these wooden poles
most of them are more then fifty years old just in the US
and seven thousand two hundred co plants in two thousand three hundred stations
all of that is going to disappear
yes?! you have your hand ? up, oh ! sorry , when you're gone like this is like, okay cool
so now here's why uh.. whales falling apart with many places
we use in the world today eighty four million barrels per day
and over eighty percent of that oil is from nations that must sell their oil to balance their badgets
so it doesnt matter if the price of oil goes down
theyre not going to cut back , they have to kee^selling it
so, post ideal Iran
Iran will be dumping another three million dollars a day
now here they basically .. the total production of liquids is here
and then we've cut up, the.. basically the why acces is the average break even price
so the average price for Saudi arabia , Kuwait all this to produce twenty seven dollars a berral
the average of share shelf well is fourty one dollars beral
that's the only amout of oil that makes profit in a .. below fifty dollar berral world
that's where Russia is right now
do you see why Russia is in Syria right now ?
Russia is there so they go and drop out oil price above fifty dollar a berral
you can see, determine so many things happening in the world just by looking at the price
on sure rest of world, deep water here, north americain shale
this is all falling apart shale, shale said its not going to be drilling in the in the artic anymore
thats why, thats the reason why, thats the, this can explain half of all the weight
fonction we heard about ithe quantom weight fonction collapsing and, in politics, that's it right there
what's so great about the sun
the amout of sun that reaches the earth surface in an hour contains enough energy to meet the world energy needs for a year
to put another way the amout of energy recieved from the sun in a year
is four to six thousand times as much as we need from all sources
thats where the present MIT, uh, you will be if this were a gift that was working you would see this going faster
than that and this going really really fast so the ideas that were going to be speeding things up
this is from singularity university uh, Steven Cuttler and Peter D Amandas
whenever you take a technology and you make it digital it then becomes receptive and starts to change you start to
not notice it, you start to get that, the garden group hipcycle
and, you know people say oh 3D printing! 3D printing is when the technology is going to change the world for
a very long time until people kind of give up on it then it really start changing things and were there now
and it becomes distractive , all of a sudden people start going out of busness , people start having problems
new people are in the market and then dematerialising
you're no longer using film to make it
David and I were walking through Toreno, yesterday, we saw something that shocked us, do you know what it was?
we saw a sign of somebody selling codac film
David ! David you went in and you asked this, does that guys in Toreno who sell films still ?
he still selling film ! I, I havent actually seen someone selling film in a very long time
uh, I didnt know they existed still, he has telescopes too.
um, um then dimonitising, things are done that, for free, then used to cost money
and then dimocritising, having everybody be able to participate
now I've added four more things to this
so you probably havent heard these but they're all complementary to the six .
one is decarbonization, everything that's using carbon will have the carbon taken
out and you either take the carbon out or you go out of business, it's that simple
by the way, Italy has fits and starts but Italy is one, one of the most uh
the best nations for the emplomanic solar you should keep that up keep doing that
decentralization and i didnt put this here because David likes decentralization
this is really a trent this is what im talking about, David come and watch
look David im talking about decentralization
deflation, deflation is there cost will get lower
and disintermidiation leading taking the middle man out of the process
so if you add up decarbonization, decentralization, disintermidiation, deflation, what do you head for ?
in America the average cost electricity is14 cent KWH, i think it's about double that in Italy, whats your cost for KWH Italy?
how much? do you know?
thirty cents okay !
this! is where were heading
and Italy that, the power companies in there charge you thirty cents ?
you should be installing solar all over the place, there are companies that can make money on3.5 cent KWH
they're in busness right now in America selling power at that grade
if you start with the solar the penels for skylab it was a hundrend dollars a Whatt
it's going down to basically a dollar a Whatt and i know how to take solar to10 cents a whatt I'll tell you, do you want to know?
there's a fluent, it's called a perrosky precursor and its from Oxford PD
so you can take the Oxford PD and you can see it if any of you have ever had a drug test you've done in you're in simple
you've been taking lots of vitamines your pee is very yellow it looks like that !
but you can take this flued, put it on windows and it has five percent efficiency !
solar cells right now have 15 percent and you have to manufecture them, you bru this like beer
you bru in a fat and one swimming pool like right here ! this room right now just look around this room
get us feeling through this vine, in a vine less then this room it's enough to provide all the solar installation
that will be made this year with pennels, and it's made with common ingredients
there's nothing rare involved in this so ! i l know how to take solar to ten cents a Whatt and I'm not joking about it .
so look at all this costs down here
then here's how the world changes this is a slide that if you understand this you can make a lot of money
even if you start off with a relatively little money
in twenty uh, twen.., two thousand and four solar was one billions dollars a year in Revedant, okay !
in twenty fourteen it was a hundrend billion dollars in Revedant, a hundrend times
now! in twenty fourteen it was one percent of the world electicity but it grew fourty one percent
if you grow something thirty six percent it doubles every two years
so let's say it goes in thirty six percent and i believe it will more then double because of what i just told you
the cheaper it is the more people install it ! the more it beats every thing else right?!
so 2016, two percent, 2018, four percent, 2020, eight percent, 2022, sixteen percent, 2024 gets 32 percent, boom !
solar end the dirtyest fuel the end of cold, the end of cold age is twenty twenty four
and i want to tell you something about me i published a million and a half words about the future starting in nineteen eighty five
with the cover story of the featuries magazine when i talked about a guy who's a computer graphic artist named Edd Catmoll do you know who he is now?
he became the head of Pixar so the guy that i picked as the center of my article to write
about saying what he's doing is interesting became the head of Disneys Animation
and i was writing about graphic since the future language in international busness
so i published a million and a half words about the future over the last thirty years i have no mistakes
I'm guaranteeing this
will happen, I'm guaranteeing it
2026, boom, solar use of natural gaz
i can tell you why natural gaz is bad but i have limited time
2028, 128 percent that means 128 percent of what we'reproducing electricity now is.. we're producing them
just from solar
2030, 256 percent boom ! solar fueling electric cars better self driving cars because every self driving car
replaces 15 cars that people don't buy
i stopped driving 3 years ago
my car is apps at my phone, i push a botton, I get around every where I go
and then coal, natural gaz oil is done and with those 80 percent of fossil fuels we've used for our energy
and it's been since the dawn of the industrual age
the age is over, the pollution is over
health care costs are done
and a big reason for having big government
just went away
a big reason for the US military
just went away
a big reason to have a 1000 military bases just went away
and there's a need for new models which is why the network society is so important
so what would the network society do if we're not constraint by time, money or political power
these are just a few ideas just to get you started
one is to persuade governments to redeploy the 5.3 trillion per year spent subsidizing fossil fuels
by the way that's not from Hippys, that's not from Alex, that's not from David Orban
that's from the International monetary fund
that's how much the say when subsidizing
and that's not a B, that's a T ! trillion
a million .. if you see this, this is a 100 doolars
10.000 dollars .. a million dollars
a 100 million .. a billion ..
this is what a trillion dollars is
right .. so the person .. that's the person that little dot there
that's a trillion .. now imagine 5 of those
and then another third of one okay ?
that's how much money we get to use for other things like Italian wines and cheeses
whatever
so ..and then we have this thing called Go 100
where you have cities that say we want to have electricity 100 percent renovable
in the US we have thousands of cities but we have 3 that matter
the rest dont matter
BURLINGTON, VT, GREENBURG, KS, ASPEN, CO
100 percent of their energy for renovables right now
so question ! do you have any cities in italy that are 100 percent fueled by renovables ?
yes ! no ! ?
until you do, you dont matter as a country
until you do, you have no model inside your country of the world that is coming just 15 years from now
it's very bad
and where's that members of parliment
where is he ?
where did he go ?
what does this mean ?
what is it ? ah okay
yeah !
ok because if you hear this you have to do something about it
it's not that hard and it's actually kind of fun
and in fact this is something that i want you too to take as a business
find cities that want to be 100 percent renovable and sell them the plans, the services to achieve this target by 2030
remember it's being achieved right now
there are cities right now
now, the person who social media thinks the one with the bait
for the democratic presidential election
comes from BURLIGTON VT
when you achieve this goal it opens your mind, it opens your heart, it opens you consciousness
to see new possibilities, and it makes people come to you
thay want you, the believe you, they trust you, they respect you
for achieving this goal
because this goal really matters
and also implement a national emissions trading system and/or carbon tax that gets larger with successive bonus
success bonuses for reducing gases
so if you look at this, the IU
is doing pretty well
the IU has a lot of places with a carbon tax and emission trading system
this is a big advantege for europe to have these policies but you don't have uniform policies
we have it, something in north America
they basically .. nothing compares to europe
this is where you're way ahead and if you get act right on solar you get your things
near enough extremely good position for the 21 century
also using satellites to find .. another technologies to find water
i know how to find water from space with satellites
i know how to find gold
and how to find oil .. silver from space
this is a very diable thing to know
and, i think that also, especially since you're here
i put up a post in facebook showing that people would build four small houses next to each other
so that friends could live together, and they got a lot of likes
i think that you should meet friends and they should build your house in a gated community
with solar and with it's water
next to each other
because that's a part of the trust, if you have trust, if you can trust your neighbors
you have a much better quality of life
and this is the biggest opportunity, sell some of the hundred trillion dollars
,and we now know how big a trillion dollar is
an equipment needed to make the world 100 pecent powered by clean energy
we need a lot of wind machines, wave, geothermal, hydro, solar pv, all these kin of things
lots and lots and lots ..
3.9 million winter bones
720.000 wave machines
Italy you should be over this, you should be dominating silver
you should be dominating wind, you're so good at export
I just spent the time with the world expo if you put half the effort you put into your designated productive arange and cheeses
into solar and wind .. in title .. who has a cost line than you in europe
who?, ah ok I guess Greece
so Greece and Italy should be dominating wave power, why not ?
so, now am concluding, what would a solar world look like ?
you'll save 5trillion dollas a year in fossil fuel which you don't have to pay interest on
you have trillions in reduced health care coss
you have 4.5 trillions gallons of water save you have energy abundance
low cost dependable feature
so thank you very much for your time and I'm happy to take any questions
*applause*
thank you Alex, so I'm sure you have questions
because that was a very very interesting speech
here you go
so thank you Alex for the very inspiring talk, so what is the one thing the little job can do ?
to make what you know ..
what can each person do?
you can go .. we have an organization in America
if you don't have it in Italy then it needs to be invented here today
okay ? because you ask me and if somebody asks me a question
then they need to do it, then they need to be invented in Greece
and it's called Grid Alternatives
what Grid Alternatives does is it gets the solar companies to donate solar pannals
and then it gets valanteers and it trains them how to install the solar
so i put on a harn hat, i put on a harness
and i went on a roof of a house in Panorama city california
which is a poor neighborhood and a person who didn't have much money
but who qualified, we put the solar panels on for free
so a poor person is now no longer paying any money for electricity
that person now has never again going to have to pay for electricity
isn't that amazing ?
what did i get ? i got to learn more about solar
it's pretty interesting, it's a very useful skill
so learn how to do solar and learn by helping with the poor
do you have poor people in Italy ?
well help them, you have all these people in the south, do you think solar would be good in southern Italy ?
in Sicily and Palermo and places like that
wouldn't that be a good way of helping Italy ?
if you can reach me repeat the question because stream couldn't here
well, we do have a majority of our energy produce by renovables
the problem is well the reason we payed 30 cents
is because we got an incentive, a state incentive, a feed in tariff
so the Grid ! i think that's step one before anything else can happen
either there's a nothegger system or you 're still fueling the main stream
centralized governmental
well my answer is learn to install solar
and think for an opportunities to do it and help everyone do it not just wealthy people
ok another question
yes
sorry it's not a question but i have 2 freinds that have 2 solar companies
and until the Italian state had the subsidiation for this installation
they survived
and now they've changed business
because they're going backwards with only by the buy of solar
so it's quite the curios thing that what happened, it's the subsidiation was i think because
from 2012 until last year.. of course
yeah , well it's a curios thing that you say, learn how to do it but it's not a sustainable business
its a sustainable business for those who manage it properly, it's not a sustainable business..
you know that there were places that make pizza
that go out of business
there are !
there are, there are restaurants go out of business
it doesn't matter of a business goes out of business because
you redeploy it, but lets say install solar and goes out of business
it's not like making a coal power plan going out of business then leaving the coal power plan
if there's nothing that's lost from doing that
they have the solar there forever
so thank you Alex
*Applause*